Jayhawks and Longhorns duke it out in Austin
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
02/08/2010 - Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Big 12 heavyweights collide in Austin this evening, as the top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks take on the ninth-ranked Texas Longhorns from the Frank Erwin Center.
Bill Self's Jayhawks sit atop the Big 12 standings with a flawless 8-0 record. The team has won 22 of its 23 games on the year and enters this tilt with an eight-game win streak in tow, including Saturday's 75-64 win over Nebraska in Lawrence. The victory extended the nation's longest homecourt winning streak to 55 games.
The Longhorns looked like the team to beat in the Big 12 just a few weeks ago, but they have hit a wall of late, losing four of their last six games, including an 80-71 setback at Oklahoma on Saturday. With the loss, Texas fell to 5-3 in league play.
These are the two winningest programs in conference play since the inception of the Big 12, with Kansas posting a league-best 180 league wins and Texas ranking second with 150. This is the 23rd all-time meeting between these two teams, with Kansas holding a 16-6 series advantage, including wins in each of the last two meetings.
The Jayhawks forced Nebraska into 19 turnovers and shot an efficient .481 from the floor, marking the team's 55th consecutive win at the Allen Fieldhouse. Marcus Morris led the way with his fourth double-double this season, finishing with 20 points and 11 rebounds. Sherron Collins added 17 points and six assists for Kansas, which remained unbeaten in league play. The Jayhawks have been able to rack up the victories thanks to stellar play at both ends of the floor. The team boasts of an impressive +21.0 scoring margin (leads the nation), averaging 83.7 ppg, while allowing just 62.7. KU has certainly been efficient shooting the ball, converting 49.3 percent from the floor, with four players currently averaging double figures. It starts with Collins, an All- American candidate with the ability to create for himself (15.6 ppg) and others (team-high 98 assists). Morris, a sophomore, and Xavier Henry, a freshman, are next at 13.0 ppg, while junior Cole Aldrich (11.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg) rounds things out with his dominant play inside.
The Longhorns are definitely capable of hanging with Kansas at the offensive end, as Texas comes into this week averaging a steady 84.1 ppg on 48-percent efficiency from the field. The key to this game may be the battle inside between KU's Aldrich and UT's standout Damion James. The Big 12's all-time leading rebounder, James is a force down low, averaging a double-double with team-highs of 17.8 points (sixth in the league) and 11.0 rebounds per game (leads the league). The 6-7 senior gets perimeter support from Avery Bradley (12.5 ppg), J'Covan Brown (9.4 ppg) and Jordan Hamilton (9.3 ppg), while big man Dexter Pittman (11.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, team-high 48 blocks) helps out in the paint. Texas was its own worst enemy in Norman this past weekend, as the team shot just .417 from the floor and a miserable 10-of-27 from the free-throw line (.370) in a nine-point loss to the Sooners. Bradley did his best to keep the Longhorns in it, finishing with 21 points. James just missed a double- double with 12 points and nine rebounds, while Gary Johnson did complete the feat, coming off the bench with 11 points and 10 boards. Pittman tallied eight points and grabbed a game-high 13 rebounds in the loss.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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